Worst Case/Best Case
“Man is not worried about real problems so much as his imagined anxieties about real problems”
– Epictetus
No one likes waking up at 2 AM with their heart racing and their mind spinning—but that was me last week.
With some huge, risky changes coming up for my family and business, the last few months have been some of the most stressful I’ve faced. My mind played out everything that could go wrong and how failure was inevitable and success unattainable. The fear of catastrophically letting down the people who depend on me most was overwhelming in the hours before dawn.
But I know I’m not alone in this. Many of the leaders I coach go through similar seasons—tough conversations, career leaps, intense personal transitions. The mind often defaults to the worst-case scenario.
There are ways to deal with obsessing about worst case scenarios that haven’t happened yet (and probably won’t).
One exercise I use with leaders objectively looks at the worst, most likely and best outcomes.
We name the worst possible outcome, mine usually involves my wife running off with Channing Tatum, the kids joining MS-13, and me living in a van down by the river.
When we lay out the worst-case scenario, it usually becomes apparent that it is a highly unlikely scenario (FYI Channing is currently dating Inka Williams).
Next, look at what is most likely to happen. Chances are, it’s not that bad. Maybe not great, but bearable. When we’re completely realistic, we usually realize we’re going to be fine in the long run.
Now pivot to thinking through what the absolute best-case scenario for your challenge would be. Maybe that hard conversation leads to a radical, positive change. Maybe your improbable business idea goes nuclear like the person who invented Crocs or Post-It Notes. For me, my hardest fight in Afghanistan ended up having the biggest impact of any mission I conducted in 22 years.
After you envision what the best-case outcome is, ask yourself “what needs to happen to make this a reality?”
Then, take action and do the next thing. You will be surprised how far you can move the needle in the right direction.
One person I was coaching with did exactly this. They laid out reasons why they deserved higher pay, considered objections, walked through the conversation with me and then went in for a talk with their CEO. They ended up walking away with more than what they asked for…crazy.
Focused thought and intentional action transform anxiety into momentum. When you start moving toward the best-case outcome, the worst-case fades.
Back to 2 AM last week.
After four hours of restless tossing, I decided to "coach myself." I wrote down a path toward our best-case scenario and started working furiously.
Action leaves little room for stress. Options emerged. This past Sunday, our best-case became significantly more attainable. No guarantees, but progress, peace, and better sleep.
If you're facing a major transition and feel stuck in your head, try the Worst, Most Likely & Best Case exercise. Ask, "What can I do today to move toward the best possible outcome?" Then, do it.
Need help working through it? That's what we do at StoneWater Training. Drop us a line (even at 2 AM) – except you Mr. Tatum, keep your distance.
